Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate

Observations and models have shown that continuously degassing volcanoes have a potentially large effect on the natural background aerosol loading and the radiative state of the atmosphere. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to quantify the impact of these volcanic emissions on the cloud albedo radiative forcing under pre-industrial (PI) and present-day (PD) conditions. We find that volcanic degassing increases global annual mean cloud droplet number concentrations by 40% under PI conditions, but by only 10% under PD conditions. Consequently, volcanic degassing causes a global annual mean cloud albedo effect of −1.06 W m−2 in the PI era but only −0.56 W m−2 in the PD era. This non-equal effect is explained partly by the lower background aerosol concentrations in the PI era, but also because more aerosol particles are produced per unit of volcanic sulphur emission in the PI atmosphere. The higher sensitivity of the PI atmosphere to volcanic emissions has an important consequence for the anthropogenic cloud radiative forcing because the large uncertainty in volcanic emissions translates into an uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state. Assuming a −50/+100% uncertainty range in the volcanic sulphur flux, we estimate the annual mean anthropogenic cloud albedo forcing to lie between −1.16 W m−2 and −0.86 W m−2. Therefore, the volcanically induced uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state substantially adds to the already large uncertainty in the magnitude of the indirect radiative forcing of climate

Analysis of surface roughness morphology with TRIZ methodology in automotive electrical contacts: Design against third body fretting-corrosion

Electrical connectors for motor vehicles are essential for the safe and efficient operation of a vehicle. However, their durability is limited by fretting induced corrosion. This type of surface damage is observed between two interconnected surfaces exposed to vibration and temperature variations. Such conditions occur during normal vehicle operation and cause two parts of an electrical contact to move at high frequency and with a small amplitude of movement relative to each other. This damages both surfaces, creates wear particles and then oxidizes them in the air. This causes an oxide layer to form at the interface, isolating the two surfaces and increasing the electrical resistance, resulting in contact failure. This study shows how the service life of electrical contacts can be extended by a surface design approach that controls the metal interface and ensures low contact resistance. The approach combines surface morphology with the progressive process of interfacial oxidation. A strong relationship between surface roughness and electrical contact resistance was observed and is elucidated in this study. Theory of Inventive Problems Solving (TRIZ) was used to identify surface texturing as a viable option to increase durability of automotive electrical connectors

The climatic importance of uncertainties in regional aerosol-cloud radiative forcings over recent decades

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.Regional patterns of aerosol radiative forcing are important for understanding climate change on decadal time scales. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing is likely to vary regionally and seasonally because of the short aerosol lifetime and heterogeneous emissions. Here the sensitivity of regional aerosol cloud albedo effect (CAE) forcing to 31 aerosol process parameters and emission fluxes is quantified between 1978 and 2008. The effects of parametric uncertainties on calculations of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation are found to be spatially and temporally dependent. Regional uncertainty contributions of opposite sign cancel in global-mean forcing calculations, masking the regional importance of some parameters. Parameters that contribute little to uncertainty in Earth's global energy balance during recent decades make significant contributions to regional forcing variance. Aerosol forcing sensitivities are quantified within 11 climatically important regions, where surface temperatures are thought to influence large-scale climate effects. Substantial simulated uncertainty in CAE forcing in the eastern Pacific leaves open the possibility that apparent shifts in the mean ENSO state may result from a forced aerosol signal on multidecadal time scales. A likely negative aerosol CAE forcing in the tropical North Atlantic calls into question the relationship between Northern Hemisphere aerosol emission reductions and CAE forcing of sea surface temperatures in the main Atlantic hurricane development region on decadal time scales. Simulated CAE forcing uncertainty is large in the North Pacific, suggesting that the role of the CAE in altering Pacific tropical storm frequency and intensity is also highly uncertain.Data can be made available upon request from the corresponding author. L. A. Regayre is funded by a Doctoral Training Grant from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and a CASE studentship with the Met Office Hadley Centre. B. B. B. Booth was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). K. S. Carslaw acknowledges funding from the Royal Society Wolfson Award. We acknowledge funding from NERC under AEROS and GASSP Grants NE/G006172/1 and NE/J024252/1. This work made use of the facilities of N8 HPC provided and funded by the N8 consortium and EPSRC (EP/K000225/1). The Met Office Hadley Centre is coordinated by the University of Leeds and the University of Manchester. The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on this article

Emulation of a complex global aerosol model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters

Sensitivity analysis of atmospheric models is necessary to identify the processes that lead to uncertainty in model predictions, to help understand model diversity through comparison of driving processes, and to prioritise research. Assessing the effect of parameter uncertainty in complex models is challenging and often limited by CPU constraints. Here we present a cost-effective application of variance-based sensitivity analysis to quantify the sensitivity of a 3-D global aerosol model to uncertain parameters. A Gaussian process emulator is used to estimate the model output across multi-dimensional parameter space, using information from a small number of model runs at points chosen using a Latin hypercube space-filling design. Gaussian process emulation is a Bayesian approach that uses information from the model runs along with some prior assumptions about the model behaviour to predict model output everywhere in the uncertainty space. We use the Gaussian process emulator to calculate the percentage of expected output variance explained by uncertainty in global aerosol model parameters and their interactions. To demonstrate the technique, we show examples of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) sensitivity to 8 model parameters in polluted and remote marine environments as a function of altitude. In the polluted environment 95 % of the variance of CCN concentration is described by uncertainty in the 8 parameters (excluding their interaction effects) and is dominated by the uncertainty in the sulphur emissions, which explains 80 % of the variance. However, in the remote region parameter interaction effects become important, accounting for up to 40 % of the total variance. Some parameters are shown to have a negligible individual effect but a substantial interaction effect. Such sensitivities would not be detected in the commonly used single parameter perturbation experiments, which would therefore underpredict total uncertainty. Gaussian process emulation is shown to be an efficient and useful technique for quantifying parameter sensitivity in complex global atmospheric models

Effects of vessel traffic on relative abundance and behaviour of cetaceans : the case of the bottlenose dolphins in the Archipelago de La Maddalena, north-western Mediterranean sea

Acknowledgements This study was part of the Tursiops Project of the Dolphin Research Centre of Caprera, La Maddalena. Financial and logistical support was provided by the Centro Turistico Studentesco (CTS) and by the National Park of the Archipelago de La Maddalena. We thank the Natural Reserve of Bocche di Bonifacio for the support provided during data collection. The authors thank the numerous volunteers of the Caprera Dolphin Research Centre and especially Marco Ferraro, Mirko Ugo, Angela Pira and Maurizio Piras whose assistance during field observation and skills as a boat driver were invaluable.Peer reviewedPostprin

Whole home exercise intervention for depression in older care home residents (the OPERA study) : a process evaluation

Background: The ‘Older People’s Exercise intervention in Residential and nursing Accommodation’ (OPERA) cluster randomised trial evaluated the impact of training for care home staff together with twice-weekly, physiotherapist-led exercise classes on depressive symptoms in care home residents, but found no effect. We report a process evaluation exploring potential explanations for the lack of effect. Methods: The OPERA trial included over 1,000 residents in 78 care homes in the UK. We used a mixed methods approach including quantitative data collected from all homes. In eight case study homes, we carried out repeated periods of observation and interviews with residents, care staff and managers. At the end of the intervention, we held focus groups with OPERA research staff. We reported our first findings before the trial outcome was known. Results: Homes showed large variations in activity at baseline and throughout the trial. Overall attendance rate at the group exercise sessions was low (50%). We considered two issues that might explain the negative outcome: whether the intervention changed the culture of the homes, and whether the residents engaged with the intervention. We found low levels of staff training, few home champions for the intervention and a culture that prioritised protecting residents from harm over encouraging activity. The trial team delivered 3,191 exercise groups but only 36% of participants attended at least 1 group per week and depressed residents attended significantly fewer groups than those who were not depressed. Residents were very frail and therefore most groups only included seated exercises. Conclusions: The intervention did not change the culture of the homes and, in the case study homes, activity levels did not change outside the exercise groups. Residents did not engage in the exercise groups at a sufficient level, and this was particularly true for those with depressive symptoms at baseline. The physical and mental frailty of care home residents may make it impossible to deliver a sufficiently intense exercise intervention to impact on depressive symptoms

Do Interventions Designed to Support Shared Decision-Making Reduce Health Inequalities? : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Copyright: © 2014 Durand et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Background: Increasing patient engagement in healthcare has become a health policy priority. However, there has been concern that promoting supported shared decision-making could increase health inequalities. Objective: To evaluate the impact of SDM interventions on disadvantaged groups and health inequalities. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies.Peer reviewe

Gingival crevicular fluid MMP-8-concentrations in patients after acute myocardial infarction

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to determine the presence of matrix metalloproteinase-8 in the gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) of patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 48 GCF samples from 20 AMI patients, hospitalized at the Department of Cardiology and Angiology of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, were investigated. Besides the myocardial infarction all patients suffered from chronic periodontal disease. Fifty-one GCF samples from 20 healthy age matched individuals with similar periodontal conditions served as controls. The dental examination included the assessment of oral hygiene, gingival inflammation, probing pocket depth, clinical attachment level and X-ray examination. The study was only carried out after the positive consent of the regional ethic commission. A quantitative assessment of aMMP-8 levels in the gingival crevicular fluid was performed with the help of the DentoAnalyzer (Dentognostics GmbH, Jena, Germany), utilising an immunological procedure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The aMMP-8 concentrations found in the gingival crevicular fluid of the AMI patients significantly differed (p = 0.001; mean value 30.33 ± 41.99 ng/ml aMMP-8) from the control group (mean value 10.0 ± 10.7 ng/ml aMMP-8). These findings suggest that periodontal inflammation in AMI patients might be associated with higher MMP-8-values compared to the healthy controls.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The acute myocardial infarction seems to influence the degree of periodontal inflammation, thus the measurement of the gingival crevicular fluid MMP8 levels seems to be a helpful biochemical test to obtain information about the severity of the periodontal disease.</p